Description: This paper uses a Bayesian approach to persistency to explore retirement cost projection variability. The analysis is divided into two parts. In the first part a subjective population projection model is developed, based on a beta-binomial distribution for the number of participants persisting through a given age. Probability statements regarding such items as the number of participants at a given age and the distribution of retirees are developed. The second part shows how the model might be used to generate confidence intervals for retirement cost projections. Both the single-entry-age case and the multiple-entry-age case are considered. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1979, Vol. 31.

Description: This paper examines four and-a-half years of prescription records for an elderly population who have relatively comprehensive out-of-hospital drug coverage under the Pharmaceutical Assistance Contract for the Elderly program in Pennsylvania. The result is a discussion of the determination of non-parametric estimations of the distributions. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1991, Vol 1.

Description: Genetic algorithms [GAs] and neural networks [NNs] are currently being used in actuarial and financial modeling. Nonetheless, while there is a general awareness of the nature of these techniques, there is often only vague familiarity with the details of how they are implemented. This paper is intended to help alleviate this situation. Its purpose is to present an overview of GAs and NNs, which includes an explanation of what they are, how they work, and an example of how they are implemented.

Description: The study is based on a sample of actuarial reports attached to the form 550C3, Schedule B, which were sent to the Department of Labor during the period June 1976 to May 1977.

Description: A key concept in post-retirement planning is the random variable future lifetime of a life aged x. While age is an important factor in the determination of this variable, there are other relevant factors, like the state of health and the character of a life aged x. The purpose of this article is to presents some preliminary observations regarding the conceptualization of future lifetime as a fuzzy random variable.

Description: This research provides a literature review on the topic of post-retirement financial strategies from the perspective of an individual who is approaching retirement age. The body of knowledge surveyed is the post-retirement financial strategies literature that is related to the risks of longevity, inflation, and investment. The literature sources are both academic and practitioner-focused. The end product is a documentation of and commentary on the state-of-the-art in the post-retirement financial strategies area. The intended audience is retirement professionals, and others, who need to be well informed about the current state of post-retirement financial strategies, as reported in the literature.

Description: Recent articles addressed the subject of fuzzy regression [FR] and the term structure of interest rates [TSIR]. Their approach relied on possibilistic regression. Although possibilistic regression has been used in many applications, it has a number of limitations, not the least of which is its nebulous relation to the least-squares concept. As an alternative to possibilistic regression, this paper uses fuzzy least square regression to investigate the TSIR.

Description: The purpose of this paper is to discuss modified cost methods that have been proposed for small-plan valuations, The first portion of the paper deals with criteria for choosing a cost method. The next portions deal with small-plan characteristics and the potential shortcomings of conventional cost methods when applied to these plans. The final portion discusses two classes of modified cost methods that have been proposed for circumventing these shortcomings. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1983, Vol. 35.

Description: The purpose of this research is to analyze recent court cases that focused on excessive contributions to small defined benefit plans. The implications of the cases is important because it provides insight into appropriate paradigms for the funding of private retirement plans. From the Actuarial Research Clearing House 1994, Vol. 1 .

Description: Letter to the editor from Mr. Hilary L. Seal, Lausanne Federal Polytechnic School, appearing in the 1979 ARCH.